College Football Lines
Miami Hurricanes vs. Pitt Panthers Betting Preview
2010-09-23
Week 4 College Football betting gets off to a good start tonight the 1-1 Miami Hurricanes head north to take on 1-1 Pitt Panthers. Sportsbook.com currently has the Hurricanes as 4 point road favorites with a Total of 50.
Both schools need their star players to step up in a big way on Thursday. Hurricanes QB Jacory Harris threw four interceptions in the loss to OSU and Pitt’s Dion Lewis has been in a sophomore slump with just 2.9 YPC this year. With an extra week of rest, both teams will be at nearly full strength for this game, but there are a couple key injuries. Miami senior RB Graig Cooper (2,229 career rushing yards) is out with a leg injury, and Pittsburgh is still missing star DE Greg Romeus after undergoing back surgery. Romeus, the reigning Big East co-Defensive Player of the Year, had eight sacks, three forced fumbles and 11 QB hurries last year.
Miami moved the football fairly well against a strong OSU defense, racking up 232 passing yards and 120 rushing yards on 4.3 YPC, but it only had one offensive touchdown. RB Damien Berry carried 16 times for 94 yards and WR Leonard Hankerson caught seven passes for 90 yards. The defense had no answer for Terrelle Pryor, allowing the Heisman hopeful to gain 346 total yards (233 passing, 113 rushing).
After a brilliant freshman campaign (1,799 rush yds, 18 total TD), Dion Lewis has had no room to run this year. He had 10 carries for just 27 yards against New Hampshire, but Pittsburgh tried to get him touches through the air and Lewis had five catches for 52 yards. Junior WR Jon Baldwin has been the standout for Pittsburgh with 10 catches for 171 yards and two scores in the two games this season.
Pittsburgh doesn’t have a lot of signature wins recently, going 1-10 against non-conference ranked opponents since 1996. Miami has won six straight meetings, but these former Big East foes haven’t faced each other since 2003. But the coaches know each other very well, with Miami’s Randy Shannon having played under Pittsburgh’s Dave Wannstedt at Miami and also in the NFL.
Speaking of the coaches, there are a couple interesting betting trends involving each team’s head coach. By the way, to check out additional stats and trends for all of the games, check out the betting guides at Sportsbook.com.
Shannon is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) off an ‘Over’ cover as the coach of MIAMI. The average score was MIAMI 24.7, OPPONENT 23.3.
Wannstedt is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game as the coach of PITTSBURGH. The average score was PITTSBURGH 28.4, OPPONENT 17.6.
For those that want to bet the Miami (FL) vs. Pittsburgh over/under, consider this trend:
MIAMI is 27-10 UNDER (+16.0 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992. The average score was MIAMI 27.5, OPPONENT 19.1 – (Rating = 2*).
To check out all of the college football point spreads for this weekend, head over to Sportsbook.com now.
CFB: Capital One Bowl - LSU vs. PENN STATE (1:00 PM ET, ABC)
2010-01-04
Perhaps the best matchup of the New Year’s Day bowl games, LSU & Penn State bring plenty of talent, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, into their Capital One Bowl matchup. Penn State is the favorite, minus-2 points according to Sportsbook.com, but more bettors seem to be interested in the total going under the posted number of 43.5.
Penn State has gone 7-3 in bowl games since 1995, but two of those three losses came in the Capital One (formerly Florida Citrus) Bowl series. In fact, the Nittany Lions scored just 15 points in those two games. They’ll look to bust out offensively, or at least simply outscore LSU, in the 2010 game, which should be defensive oriented. Penn State yielded just 11.8 points per game, en route to a 10-2 SU and 6-6 ATS record. LSU was 9-3, allowing just 16.0 points per game. The Tigers will also be looking to extend a run of overall success in bowl games, as they boast a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS record since 1995. Under head coach Les Miles, the Tigers are 15-6 ATS in games versus non-conference foes. Penn State was a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this year.
On the surface, Penn State (10-2) versus LSU (9-3) would seem like a premier bowl matchup. However, despite both teams’ lofty records, the reality is that neither of these teams were serious factors in their respective conference races. Combined, they were 0-4 against BCS conference foes and more interestingly, their offenses generated just 8.8 points per game in those matchups. Essentially, against quality opposition, both of these offenses shut down. There are also two very simple, yet powerful, trends that point to this one staying under the total of 44. Head coach Joe Paterno and Penn State are 92-69 going UNDER the total since 1992. Finally, if you would’ve blindly bet the UNDER on all Penn State and LSU games this year, you’d have some extra holiday spending money (15-7, +7.3 Units). I’ll call for that trend to continue.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
PENN ST is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game since 1992. The average score was PENN ST 16.6, OPPONENT 24.3 - (Rating = 1*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (PENN ST) - with a good defense - allowing 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game. (87-46 over the last 10 seasons.) (65.4%, +36.4 units. Rating = 2*)
CAPITAL ONE BOWL Series Trend: Georgia beat Michigan State last January in the Capital One Bowl to snap a 4-game upset winning streak by the Big Ten in the series. The last two times Penn State appeared in this game, they only scored 15 points combined, losing SU & ATS both times. Three of the L4 games have gone UNDER the total.
CFB: Little Caesars Pizza Bowl - OHIO vs. MARSHALL (1:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-12-28
Little Caesar’s Pizza takes over sponsorship of the game more commonly known as the Motor City Bowl. Former conference rivals will square off in the 2009 rendition of the series, as Ohio and Marshall meet. Ohio is a small 2.5-point favorite, and backed by 77% of bettors at Sportsbook.com, according to the BETTING TRENDS page.
The Thundering Herd was a fixture in this game in the late 90s, winning it in ’98, ’99 and 2000. They haven’t been to a bowl game since ’04 however, and make it back to Detroit in ’09 sporting a 6-6 record. While with the MAC, Marshall had won seven of the L8 head-to-head meetings with Ohio, the last one in ’04. The Bobcats are a two-point favorite for this game after finishing 9-4 SU and ATS. They are on an 8-2 spread run overall but have never won a bowl game, going 0-2 (0-1 ATS).
With Mark Snyder having resigned from the head coaching position at Marshall at the end of the 6-6 regular season, this is no time to be backing the Thundering Herd in a bowl game. I have to question whether they are even deserving of being in a bowl game at all. Their StatFox Outplay Factor Rating is -3.4, a full 6.6 points fewer than Ohio’s, and they only averaged 21.8 points per game this season on offense. One of the StatFox Game Estimators also projects about a seven-point win for the Bobcats. Look for Ohio to leave Ford Field this time around with a much happier feeling.
LITTLE CEASARS PIZZA BOWL Series Trend: The Motor City Bowl gets a new name for ’09, with Little Ceasar’s Pizza stepping up to fill the spot. It could be a welcomed change for the MAC, as teams from that conference have gone just 2-5 SU & ATS in the L7 games of the series. In terms of totals, seven of the L10 games have gone UNDER. In past Motor City Bowl games with lines of 6-points or higher, the dog is 3-1 ATS. In those with at less than six, the favorite is 5-3 ATS. Marshall played in this game in ’97, ’98, & ’99, winning the latter two.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
MARSHALL is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday since 1992. The average score was MARSHALL 23.3, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Under - Any team against the total (MARSHALL) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences. (34-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (81%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
Find more great betting info on this game on the GAME MATCHUPS page.
CFB: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (12:00 PM ET, ABC)
2009-12-04
The de-facto Big East Championship game is on tap for Saturday afternoon and the winner will cash its coveted BCS ticket. Cincinnati is unbeaten but oddsmakers saw enough in Pittsburgh to establish the Panthers as a 1.5-point home favorite. However, since then, the line at Sportsbook.com has shifted to Cincinnati -2, under the weight of over 85%-plus support on that side of the action.
The Bearcats (6-5 ATS) are perfect 11-0 heading into what is Big East championship contest. Coach Brian Kelly has done a terrific job of keeping all the excitement in perspective, saying “…the program has conceivably has arrived, but it is not built”. Tony Pike is back as the starting quarterback; however Kelly has deftly changed the offense from a passing team, to one that has compiled 180 yards or more rushing in the in four of the last five games. This strategy has worked well in thinking ahead to the potential of inclement weather and given opposing defenses something else to worry about. The defense has worn down as the season progressed, especially against the run, being gouged for over 200 yards in the last two of last three games which will be a focal point Pittsburgh will certainly attack. Cincy is 27-9 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game.
Pittsburgh (9-2, 6-3-1 ATS) is off a confidence deflating loss at West Virginia 19-16 and now like many of the teams playing this weekend for championships, can focus on the task at hand. Coach Dave Wannstedt has taken a lot of grief as head coach in several stops; nevertheless he is to be commended for this job. He built the program his way, defense first and a pro-style offensive attack. He not only was able to get the right players to fit his program, but worked with players that improved each season like QB Bill Stull. He wasn’t afraid to take a chance on dynamic RB Dion Lewis, considered too small by others. The Panthers are 12-5-1 ATS in last 17 lined contests.
Sportsbook.com has seen Pittsburgh go from opening as 1.5-point favorites to two-point underdogs. In order to prove bettors wrong the Panthers must be the more physical team, control the clock with run game and have defensive front pressure Pike. Pittsburgh’s 43 sacks was the best in college football, while Cincinnati has given up nine, the nation's third-fewest. Wanny’s crew really gave a non-effort in loss to West Virginia last week and is 5-1 ATS off a spread loss.
Pittsburgh’s secondary is not as good as its numbers (45th) which provides coach Kelly an opportunity to dissect it, while looking thru companies in South Bend that make business cards. If the offensive line holds up, Pike should carve Pitt up like a surgeon. Pike is the better quarterback in this BCS battle. Defensively, the Cats have to find ways to get off the field, since they lose in slug-fest. Cincy is 28-11-1 ATS as visitors against teams with winning home records.
This series is known as the River City Rivalry and Pittsburgh is 7-1 and 4-1 ATS and the total of this Big East bash is 58.
The StatFox Power Line actually shows Pittsburgh by 5
CFB: Cowboys favored to crush Colorado
2009-11-19
Among the surprises in college football this season is Oklahoma State. Not in the traditional sense, though the possibility of the Cowboys finishing in second place in the Big 12 South does carry some shock value. It is how Oklahoma State has compiled 8-2 record, having a solid defense that is the cause for surprise. On Thursday night, they will be an 18.5-point favorite vs. Colorado according to Sportsbook.com, and bettors are backing the hosts at a near 90% rate. No wonder the opening line has jumped 4.5-points already.
Oklahoma State’s season has been startling, considering their terrific trio has been reduced to basically just one, with quarterback Zac Robinson carrying the burden. All-America receiver Dez Bryant was lost because of a NCAA suspension and running back Kendall Hunter has been slowed by a nagging ankle/foot injuries and only recently has come back to play, lacking his usual explosiveness.
The Cowboys (6-3 ATS) are ranked fourth in the Big 12 in defense and 32nd nationally, surrendering 333.9 yards per game. Okie State has been incredibly stingy on the ground, allowing 89.6 yards per game, good for sixth nationally. Linebacker Patrick Lavine is among those who accepted the challenge once the offense lost several weapons. “He’s a great playmaker for us,” said teammate Andre Sexton, another senior linebacker. “He steps up and makes game-changing plays when we need it.”
Oklahoma State has lost only to Texas in last eight games and is 22-8 ATS in home games after covering the spread in two out of their last three contests. The Cowboys will take on Colorado (3-7, 5-5 ATS), who might have another coach on the sidelines next season.
Dan Hawkins is dismissing reports he’s under fire despite 16-31 record in Boulder. Though Hawkins was brought in to help clean up the program from the scandal-laden days under Gary Barnett and succeeded, big time football isn’t just about getting the players to go to class and keep trouble to a minimum, it’s about winning. This will be the third time in four years with no bowl game for Buffs under Hawkins, who are plagued with inconsistencies and penalties.
This is a burdensome spot Colorado, having lost at Iowa State 17-10 on Saturday and having to playing another road game on a short week. Under Hawkins, the Buffs are 4-12 ATS after scoring 14 points or less and 4-13 against the spread after playing their last game on the road.
Sportsbook.com has Oklahoma State as 18.5-point home favorites with total of 48, suggesting a final score of roughly 33-15. If that score appears to low, than the fact the Cowboys are 11-3 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons and 13-4-2 ATS at home in November should be more comforting. Colorado doesn’t look to be in a very good situation and 6-15 ATS road record backs up that point up. However, for those that see the glass half full as opposed to half empty, the Buffalos are 4-0 ATS catching 17 or more points in last four tries.
ESPN of course will have this telecast at 7:45 Eastern, with Chris Fowler watching his alma mater. (Colorado if you didn’t know) In the last 17 encounters between these squads, the SU winner has won by 10 or more points 14 times.
StatFox Power Line – Oklahoma State by 24
CFB: Virginia Tech the play vs. UNC?
2009-10-29
The calendar shows Virginia Tech on Thursday night, this can mean only one thing, time to profit. If you are a serious college football sports bettor, you know that the Hokies have proven a solid bet on Thursday nights, as Frank Beamer’s team is 14-3 against the number the last 11 years. Tonight’s opponent is North Carolina, and Sportsbook.com has listed Tech as a 16.5-point home favorite in this ACC dual. That number seems to have done its job, as action on the BETTING TRENDS page shows nearly a 50/50 split at last check.
It’s understandable if you might be a little skitterish about laying 16.5 (at Sportsbook.com) on Virginia Tech, after watching them get plowed under for 309 yards by Georgia Tech and North Carolina stepping on Florida state for a cool 238 last week, however, comparing the Yellow Jackets option offense to North Carolina’s running game is like comparing to Erin Andrews to Chastity Bono. GT is second in the country running the ball and the Tar Heels are 86th even after crossing the 200-yard barrier last week. On that note, they are 1-7 ATS after gaining 200 or more yards rushing the pigskin.
North Carolina players still have to be reeling, blowing a 24-6 third quarter lead near the Dean Dome last Thursday vs. Florida State. The Tar Heels actually do have decent defensive talent and have held all teams not named Georgia Tech and Florida State to 17 points or less.
Frank Beamer has had a few extra days to coach up his downtrodden team since being stung by the Yellow Jackets. The Hokies are 12-6 ATS off a bye week and 7-2 against oddsmakers if the opponent has positive record.
Quarterback Tyrod Taylor isn’t Jimmy Clausen, nonetheless is an improving passer and has been sharp occasionally. With North Carolina offering up one of the six worst offenses in the country and already 0-5 (2-3 ATS) against Virginia Tech since they’ve joined the Atlantic Coast Conference five years ago, common sense says to take the Hokies to start a fun-filled Halloween weekend 34-10 and cover convincingly.
The StatFox Power Ratings show VTech -18, a rare case where a favorite might be underpriced by Sportsbook.com.